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Well, to be honest I was already pretty leery of small indies after various horror stories I’ve heard. Also the amount of work involved puts me off. If I’m going to try at all it’ll be by the agent route.
Nonfic could work for me, as I am coming to the sad conclusion that I am better at telling an existing story than at making one up. As for your specific suggestion, although I flatter myself I know my subject and would love to do it, that’s been done before, more than once. I’d say the market is saturated, so if I’m going to write about railway accidents at all I’d have to think up another approach.